Correlation tells you that two variables move together. It does not tell you why. Causal discovery is the attempt to go one step further: given observational data alone, can we recover the causal graph that generated it? Sometimes the answer…
Researchers built three applicability matrices covering 55 quantitative bias analysis methods to help observational researchers select appropriate bias analysis techniques for summary-level data.
It feels like this post on LessWrong should mostly be preaching to the choir, but I have seen enough rationalists post probability ranges (mainly elsewhere) that maybe it is worth writing.The probability of an event is not an objective…
The idea is elegant, the implementation is subtle, and the limitations are instructive. Understanding flows is a good way to understand what "exact likelihood" really buys you, and what it costs. Start with a simple base distribution that you understand…
This Primer examines Skillingâs nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian inference and, more broadly, multidimensional integration. The principles of nested sampling are summarized and recent developments using efficient nested sampling algorithms in... Uncover the latest and most impactful research in…
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Researchers have formally defined the five conditions under which comparing observed outcomes with model-predicted counterfactuals yields valid treatment effect estimates. News Source: Nathaniel Bowman. (October 29, 2026). Predicted outcomes as virtual controls: five conditions for valid treatment effect estimates. Scienmag.
In your A/B tests, up to 4 out of 20 might be judged as 'successful' even though they have 'no effect'. If you repeat tests without correction, that probability jumps to 64%. Although statistics textbooks say 'use Bonferroni correction,' why do almost…
PresenterDavid M. EvansDate first presentedJune 2021 Virtual WorkshopContentIntroduction to Mendelian randomization, the problems with using traditional observational studies to investigate causality, and Randomized controlled trials as the gold standard for causal research. IBG is recruiting 2-3 faculty (Assistant or Associate/Full) in statistical…
Course TopicsThe t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) are two of the most common statistical techniques used in practice. These techniques allow researchers to statistically assess the plausibility that a feature of a population differs from a hypothesized value on…
Inference, estimators, Bayesian methods, and uncertainty quantification.
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